Gas is about to get more expensive, and it’s not hard to see why. Brent crude, the benchmark most of the world watches, jumped past $100 a barrel this week for the first time since May. That’s roughly a 29% climb in just one month.

The trigger this time was the Houthis. The Iran-backed group in Yemen claimed it struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, adding a second flashpoint to a conflict that was already squeezing oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled at $100.69 after the news broke, up about 7% in a single day. US crude, West Texas Intermediate, wasn’t far behind, climbing 6% to settle near $92.

Here’s why this route matters so much. Around a fifth of the world’s oil supply, roughly 15 million barrels a day, normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the US-Iran war reignited, tanker traffic through that strait has all but stopped, with crossings dropping into the single digits on some days. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has gone as far as declaring the strait “completely closed,” saying no tanker can pass without its permission.

The Red Sea attacks make things worse because they threaten what had become the main workaround. With Hormuz effectively blocked, more traffic had been routing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait instead, which connects the Red Sea to global markets and carries somewhere between 12% and 15% of all global maritime trade. Now that route is under threat too, and there isn’t really a third option left.

Trump added fuel to the fire himself earlier in the week, warning that the US would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Tehran hits a ship in Hormuz. Iran responded through a source at its state news agency, warning that it would strike back at American-linked infrastructure and energy facilities across the region if that happened. Neither side has backed down since.

Markets noticed immediately. Major US stock indexes fell the day oil crossed $100, with the Dow dropping 525 points and the Nasdaq sliding more than 2%. Brent has since eased slightly, slipping to around $98 a barrel on Friday, but it’s still up more than 12% for the week. Analysts at Goldman Sachs think the bigger move could still be ahead — the bank said Brent could climb past $120 a barrel by the end of the year if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted, and average around $100 for all of next year.

While rising oil prices remained the biggest driver of market sentiment, corporate earnings also stayed in focus, as seen in Alphabet’s Q2 2026 Earnings: Cloud Business Beats Big, Stock Still Drops, where strong cloud growth still wasn’t enough to prevent the company’s stock from falling.

It isn’t just traders feeling this. Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have already started cutting oil production because they can’t export what they’re pumping. Saudi Arabia has been leaning on an alternate pipeline route to the Red Sea to keep some crude moving, but that option is now getting squeezed by the same Houthi attacks. The UK has pulled its remaining diplomatic staff out of Iran altogether, citing the security situation.

For everyday consumers, this usually shows up fastest at the gas pump. Prices at the pump tend to follow crude oil increases within a couple of weeks, so if this standoff continues, drivers everywhere are likely to feel it soon, not just traders watching futures contracts.

Whether prices keep climbing depends almost entirely on one thing: what happens to the Strait of Hormuz. As one energy analyst put it, the war itself matters less to the oil market than whether that single waterway stays open or shut.

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