Andy Burnham’s third week as prime minister has been defined by a single, persistent political problem: the early release of prisoners from overcrowded jails. After days of front-page criticism and a backbench rebellion within Labour, the government has revised the scheme. The changes are partial, and the controversy is not over.

Here is what has changed, what remains unresolved, and what to watch next.

What happened

The original SDS40 early release scheme, introduced under the previous government to ease pressure on a prison system operating at full capacity, allowed certain prisoners to be released up to 40 days before the halfway point of their sentence. It applied to offenders serving between four and seven years, and was never designed to apply to people convicted of serious sexual or violent offences.

In practice, the criteria for exclusion were interpreted more loosely than ministers intended. Rapists, serious child sex offenders, and some killers were among those freed early. The case of the killer of PC Andrew Harper, who was released automatically under the scheme, became the focal point of political criticism in late July and early August.

On 7 August, Burnham’s spokesperson confirmed that the prime minister had “personally intervened” to order officials to draw up revised criteria.

What the changes do

The revised scheme, published over the weekend, draws sharper lines around which offenders can be released early.

Excluded from early release

• Rapists and serious child sex offenders
• Killers of emergency service workers, including police officers
• Those convicted under specific national-security-related terrorism statutes

Still eligible

• People convicted of domestic abuse where the sentence falls within the four-to-seven-year window
• Some manslaughter offenders, excluding those covered by the new exclusion list
• Lower-level sexual offenders not captured by the “serious” threshold

The decision to retain early release for domestic abusers has drawn immediate fire from the domestic abuse sector. The charity Refuge said the move “sends a dangerous message to victims” and called for an urgent review. Similar concerns have been raised by the Domestic Abuse Commissioner.

Why the change is limited

The government is constrained by the underlying problem the scheme was designed to address: prison capacity. As of early August, the prison population in England and Wales stood at approximately 88,400 against a usable operational capacity of around 89,400, according to figures referenced by the Ministry of Justice. The system is running close to its limit.

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has privately told colleagues that without a release mechanism of some kind, the prison service would face a constitutional crisis within weeks, with courts unable to remand suspects because no cells would be available.

Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy has called for “emergency primary legislation as soon as Parliament returns in September” to permanently exclude killers of emergency service workers, child abusers, and members of grooming gangs from early release. The Conservatives have indicated they will press the point when MPs return from recess.

What Burnham has said

In a pooled television clip recorded on Saturday, the prime minister said: “I will not stand by while serious offenders are released early in a way that undermines public confidence in the justice system. I have ordered the Justice Secretary to revise the criteria, and we will keep revising them until the public can see that the system is fair.”

Downing Street has stopped short of committing to ending the scheme entirely. A spokesperson said on Sunday that “the operational realities of the prison estate mean some form of managed release is unavoidable in the short term,” but added that the government would publish a long-term prisons strategy in the autumn.

What happens next

• Parliament returns in early September. Expect the first opposition day motion to focus on early release exclusions.
• The Sentencing Council is reviewing guidance for judges handling domestic abuse cases, with a consultation expected before the end of the year.
• Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget, confirmed for 28 October, is expected to include capital spending on prison places, though Treasury sources caution that new facilities take at least five years to deliver.

Frequently asked questions

Who is excluded from the revised early release scheme?

Rapists, serious child sex offenders, and the killers of emergency service workers are now excluded. The government has not yet published a full statutory list; the changes are being implemented through revised operational guidance to the Prison and Probation Service.

Why are domestic abusers still being released early?

Ministers say the operational need to release some prisoners to avoid the system running out of cells makes it impossible to remove every category. They have promised further revisions and a long-term prisons strategy in the autumn.

When will Parliament debate the changes?

MPs return from recess in the first week of September. The Conservatives have said they will use the first available opposition day to push for a wider ban.

How many prisoners have been released early under the scheme?

Around 2,500 prisoners have been released under SDS40 since its launch, according to Ministry of Justice figures cited in parliamentary questions in July.

Sources

• BBC News, “Prisoner release row proving to be Burnham’s first big test as PM,” 7 August 2026
• Politico London Playbook, “Burnham’s difficult choices begin,” 4 August 2026
• Ministry of Justice operational guidance, July 2026
• Refuge and Domestic Abuse Commissioner statements, August 2026